Migration towards Defi Exchanges- Like WFH, it was always going to happen, but this is the Covid accelerant moment.
At Selini Capital we have many HFT veterans amongst us, with an intricate understanding of market microstructure.
Lessons that are guiding us on evaluating DEXes:
AMMs:
A cool but naive primitive.
Price discovery kills LPs with poorly named "impermanent" losses
Uni v2 very capital inefficient. Uni v3 killer for non-experts to MM, and worse than order book style
Not bad for stableswaps and long-tail Daos wanting to own their liquidity.
Oracle-Based exchanges:
There are no real MMs- this means no price discovery is happening there (unless its an exploit!).
They piggy back of centralized exchange market makers e.g. Binance etc.
Clever short but not scalable, and not part of the Defi Vision.
Sorry, just facts.
CLOBs:
This is the only real long term solution for efficient price discovery to happen on-chain.
The issue is if you have the matching engine fully onchain it requires huge throughput that's not easily feasible yet.
And if you have it offchain you aren't fully decentralized.
We are interested to see the innovation coming in the immediate months/years on this side.
dYdX is the leader rn, and we support their liquidity depth (disclaimer: we are not an investor, but hold some tokens and will stack more).
Their matching engine is offchain at the moment (Starkware on top of Ethereum). They are trying to be more decentralized and move to their own app-chain on Cosmos, to hopefully have enough throughput to allow more decentralization.
Will they succeed?
Not sure, its a hard task.
But its what we have to move towards, and Selini will help support liquidity in serious projects moving in this direction and help figure out the warts and edge cases that will inevitably come up.
Hopefully in 5 years we look back at FTX model like we look at caveman tools..
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Going into Trump's speech there was some chatter on the game theory of trading it- some amount of bullish rhetoric was priced in, with the ~5% bounce over the last 24h going into it.
Some were saying its just another sell the news- Elon/SLN style.. I disagree with this take-
The usual "event traders" were eager to exit their 'buy the rumour' trades they had put on--
and leveraged retail apes were washed out even before the speech began, as well a 2nd wave when Trump started but talked in generalities..
But Trump in the end, after meandering, did hit on the headline notes- Fire Gensler, friend to crypto, accumulate/not sell bitcoin for the US government.
While the profit takers can still have some inventory to clear, the headlines of these notes will grab a ton of airtime-
Haven't expressed Macro views in a while- but as things are about to really start moving- its time.
I spent months analyzing the endgame of U.S. policy.
The outcome I saw is now coming into view-
Gradually at first.. then all at once, the Fed will poo-poo in their pampers. 🧵
So Mr. Jay raised rates a bunch, and then him and his whole crew has been trying to sell us on "higher for longer" and that they will keep going till the inflation "job is done".
Meanwhile inflation is sticky- and paying 5.5% interest on $33 trilion isn't helping USD debasement.
But old news- why are things about to change now?
Well those in the know have been fixated all year on the back of the yield curve. And 10-30 year bonds are starting to get blown out in a serious way.
Many listened to the Uncommon Core episode on Crypto Game Theory-- what they didn't hear was the first hour debate between me and Su that got left on the cutting room floor:
"Won't new NFTs dilute the value of existing ones?" ..
From a more simplistic economic perspective :
The buyers of a category have a limited budget.
Whether its to buy an animal profile picture-
or who want to own an L1 that is trying to sell the allure of crypto-Zuckerbergia, combined with the 'sophistication of MOVE language'-
I remember Su was arguing that the increase in supply of new NFTs was actually bullish for prices!