Thread by @ianDAOs

1/ This week's events may become one of a few historic moments in crypto that not only ushers in a new protracted crypto bear market (12-18+ months)—but in time, leads to greater regulation, maturation, and ultimately the next (and even bigger) bull market.

Some insights...

2/ As a builder (@SyndicateDAO) and investor (@IDEOVC, @CitiVentures), I've been in crypto full-time for the last 8 years, since 2014.

To me, this is starting to have a very similar feeling to the breadth, scale, and impact that Mt Gox (2014) and ICOs (2017) had on the industry.

3/ As some may remember, the 18 months after Mt. Gox and ICOs were not fun.

People working on Bitcoin in 2014 were ridiculed. My bosses, peers, and friends said I should spend my time elsewhere. People I respected told me it was a 'career limiting move,' 'ponzi,' and 'tulips.'

4/ 2018 was very similar, but the jabs were a bit different. People still described the then crypto and blockchain industry as a 'ponzi,' but they also used terms like 'vaporware' and more sophisticated lines like "you don't need a blockchain, you can just use a database."

5/ VC funding dried up except at the seed stage. LP interest waned and concentrated into established firms like @a16z.

Valuations and round sizes were low. Teams were lean (3-10 ppl).

Fewer new startups were funded, many failed, and talent went elsewhere (AI/ML).

It was tough.

6/ 2014 and 2018 were like deserts: barren, grey, no easy ways out.

That's what a bear market feels like: when the easier thing to do is give up and leave entirely—and the harder thing to do is to (re)commit and keep building, not knowing when or how you'll make it out, if ever.

7/ But it was also in those times that our industry actually came back together, to work with and support one another, learn from each other, co-create, co-innovate, and ultimately grow up and succeed together.

The bear markets were some of my favorite years.

8/ Long held beliefs and assumptions were reevaluated. There was less dogmatism and fighting.

People became more open minded, humble, inclusive, creative, kind, caring, and helpful.

We focused on positive-sum outcomes for the industry, not just ourselves. wagmi was real.

9/ Both crypto bear markets also had a similar cycle:

Months 1-3: unwinding and stabilizing

Months 4-9: restructuring, refocusing, collaboration

Months 10-12: breakthrough discoveries

Months 13-18: new building and growth

Months 18+: new bull market (bigger than previous)

10/ What's non-obvious however is that knowledge and learning compounded continuously through the bear markets—and the people who exited in the first 3 months and came back in the next bull market missed out on 15 months of "earned secrets" that future unicorns were built around.

11/ For example, @ethereum @ledger @chainalysis @MakerDAO @Uniswap @opensea @falconxnetwork were founded during the 2014 and 2018 bear markets, and so many more were hard built through them.

And when the next bull market came, those teams had substantial capabilities and leads.

12/ They absorbed the users, demand, market, talent, and growth as they came back.

And the new founders or ones reentering the space had to catch up on 15+ months of learning, parse through the noise, and find differentiated (often narrower) wedges into the market.

13/ Regulation also reshaped the landscape, closing off some markets and opening new ones in the process.

They also led to new design patterns, principles, and disciplines in the areas of web3-native company, network, and community building that were difficult to learn and copy.

14/ I appreciate all of the builders (and investors) who remained steadfast and committed over the years through the bear markets to build what web3 is today.

We all know each other (directly or indirectly) and have a mutual respect for one another, even we disagree at times.

15/ There aren't many of us, but it grows with each bear.

Bull markets bring in incredible new talent—but it's the bear markets that show us who's in it for the right reasons and forge lasting relationships with the people who stick around.

16/ Adversity and bear markets are where you get to show the world who you really are. They're an opportunity for you to shine and grow.

It's a gift to take a stand, fight for something, and build what you believe in against the odds.

https://twitter.com/cdixon/status/1523836363954655235?s=20&t=ui2fw9xXJwF_HRH_gsEkBg

17/ If you're an entrepreneur, think longer-term, have deep conviction, cut out the noise, attack hard problems, focus on the right markets, and be principled, pragmatic, and efficient.

And stay well capitalized, ideally with investors who have built through the bears before.

18/ If you're a designer, engineer, lawyer, marketer, or builder in web3, join people, teams, projects, and companies who are in it for the right reasons, have deep conviction in their missions, and are working on hard problems.

The only way out is through. No shortcuts.

19/ For investors, bears are the best time to invest.

Lower valuations, less noise, more time to think, more time to work with founders, and more breakthrough innovations if you can find it.

Smart contracts, ERC-20, ERC-721, DAOs, and DeFi were all discovered during bears.

20/ While we still have a few months ahead for the market to unwind and work through new regulation, I can already see some pathways out of the bear months from now.

This bear is a bit different—unlike previous ones we have a lot more infrastructure, apps, users, and talent.

21/ First, regulation is coming. We hoped it wouldn't anytime soon, but it always was, and we now need to approach it in a mature, pragmatic, and principled way.

I believe this bear will finally reveal the pathways to get the best of both worlds: compliance + decentralization.

22/ Second, I believe the new standard for what it means to build a top web3 company will emerge during this bear. It'll take the best of web2 and web3 on all fronts: tech, team, ops, gtm, etc—and do what no web2 or web3 company can alone.

These startups will lead the next bull.

23/ Finally, like with previous versions of the web, we will see web3 finally converge multiple technologies like DeFi, NFTs, DAOs, etc. into integrated solutions, platforms, and networks that unlock higher order experiences and solve important problems together.

24/ The knowledge, expertise, capabilities, talent, partnerships, and funding to do these all well will be hard to learn, acquire, build.

But they will be learned and built in the next 18 months. Some of already are, and it's going to be amazing.

Brick by brick.

LFG.