Thread by @EL4JC

When the NEC meets on Tuesday, I hope they reflect that Labour's referendum policy should be set as a matter of domestic policy - not for the sake of Euro elections that very probably don’t matter in the long term. /1

If the Party accepts that, as outlined in the conference motion, that all other avenues have been exhausted then that is one thing.

But it would be crazy for the Party to adopt a policy that might hurts us in a General Election, essentially for the sake of a leaflet. /2

This is a serious moment - there’s loads of evidence that adopting a 2nd ref will trash our chances.

When Labour supported a second referendum in Parliament recently, we immediately dropped 5-10 pts in the polls. /3

The feedback from canvassers in the Newport by election was bad until the final week when it all went wrong for May in the Brexit negotiations and the Tory vote collapsed.

But the Labour vote is extremely vulnerable to the Brexit parties. /4

The danger is, once Labour supporters experience voting for another party because of constitutional issues not bread and butter ones, they’re much more likely to do so again and you might never win them back.

That’s what happened in Scotland. /5

and the "Tory implosion" is probably temporary.

Their 2017 vote was a Brexit vote and it’s volatile. Sure enough as soon as they’ve been seen to betray Brexit they’ve lost up to 14 pts just like that.

But those people will return immediately if they get a Brexiteer leader. /6

Of course if it’s Boris Johnson that might actually split the Tories, but we can’t rely on that. If Johnson comes in and the Tories surge to 40%, all but a few Tory remainers will just go along with it....

..and that could spell the end of the Corbyn project. /7

So, if the party (membership) decides that a 2nd referendum is the right policy, then so be it. But the dangers are clear.

I hold my hands up - I care more about getting Labour under Corbyn into government than I do about Brexit. /8

I will support whatever policy is shown as most likely to achieve that, which means not being blind to the evidence, or making huge policy decisions essentially due to a EU Parliamentary campaign, especially given MEPs have no ability to vote for a second referendum anyway.