Thread on the 2 bills passed by NY state legislature this week on tax returns and pardon loophole.
1/ First, on releasing tax returns: This bill is a big deal for 2 reasons, and not because it will release Trump tax returns immediately. (It won't).
2/ Trump's lawyers can still sue in fed court to enjoin NY state from releasing his state taxes, under fed claims (bill of attainder). He will lose those suits, just like he will lose to quash House request to IRS. Same delay, same legal result... but unlike IRS...
3/ ... NY state tax officials will IMMEDIATELY comply with a court order. I am not at all sure that Mnuchin would comply, which would set up a true constitutional crisis (unlike Pelosi's or Nadler's assumptions about the current non-con crisis)...
4/ The NY bill assures compliance, and that also makes IRS compliance more likely (more risk and less reward for defiance). If NY releases reveal suspicious activity, it's more likely courts will sympathize with other subpoenas and that the House can punish defiance...
5/ But the NY bill's text means the House should formally immediately vote for an "Impeachment inquiry" in order to win w/ conservative judges.
As I discussed last week, the NY bill says the House must have a "specified and legitimate legislative purpose." theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
6/ Now for the double jeopardy bill that closes the pardon loophole. Thanks, @FSFP @ronfein @JohnBonifaz @tribelaw @davidrlurie for your work on this issue. Given Trump's increasingly reckless pardons, it could become very relevant.
7/ It is relevant only after a co-conspirator has been tried or has pled guilty, and then gets pardon. The bill does not apply retroactively to Manafort, etc. But let's say Roger Stone or Don Jr. stragetically plead guilty to hacking/conspiracy charges in 2020, then get pardon...
8/ I wouldn't bet money on Don Jr. flipping on dear old Dad. But there's nothing like facing a 5-10 year sentence to concentrate the mind. That's even more true for Stone, Kushner, Prince. Who knows?
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