John Bolton's, erm, "ambitious" sectoral trade deal idea might escape the clutches of WTO law for a while but would run smack into the US Congress. In fact it's mainly a foreign policy signal(from US side) and to sway gullible MPs and voters (from UK). Me: ft.com/content/34c5bb…
NB v quick thread on interesting wrinkle on attitudes to Ireland and UK in Washington. During the Troubles, State Dept and some foreign policy hawks were always more pro-UK for natsec reasons, as opposed to the largely Dem Irish-American caucus on the Hill. 1/n
Obviously since GFA those tensions have dissipated. In the meantime, not least because of that dissipation, the Irish-American caucus in Congress has become more bipartisan. That's not good news for the UK trying to get US support in case of a no-deal Brexit. 2/n
The influence of Irish interest can be seen in Nancy Pelosi's repeated to warning to the UK to forget a US-UK trade deal if it threatens the GFA. irishtimes.com/news/politics/… Unfortunately for UK, it's a lot easier to block a trade deal on Capitol Hill than to get one through. 3/n
Added to which, if there is a weak/sectoral deal, the traditional US mercantilist interests like farmers will also be against it. So you've got irate blocs of Congress on foreign policy (Ireland) *and* export grounds. In a no-deal Brexit this deal ain't gonna happen. 4/4
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