We are pretty quiet right now as you can see, but I suspect that will star to change after 2 PM.
Right now the lower levels of the atmosphere are the most unstable. If you look at this Lifted Index observation map, you might wonder why we aren't see thunderstorms pop up all over the place right now.
The answer can be found at the mid levels of the atmosphere where the atmosphere is far more stable because the air mass is very warm and saturated on up to about 600 MB.
So what is needed is a trigger to enhance lifting. Well, hello trigger! We have a very strong shortwave approaching that will introduce drier air at the mid levels and destabilize the atmosphere.
Not everyone will have thunderstorms, but those that do can expect some impressive ones this evening. The primary question is where do the storms start to develop and where does the focus for low level convergence become the strongest.
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