Thread by @LauraEGrego

The Pentagon has canceled the GMD's Redesigned Kill Vehicle program. Undersec Griffin ended Boeing’s contract yesterday, finalizing a stop-work announcement made in May. #missiledefense @robertburnsap @AP
apnews.com/b6d01e01f2a440…

@robertburnsAP @AP The Missile Defense Agency stated that “The department ultimately determined the technical design problems were so significant as to be either insurmountable or cost-prohibitive to correct.” @jenjudson @defense_news defensenews.com/pentagon/2019/…

@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news This is an extraordinary announcement. Why? Because despite the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system’s poor track record, Congress continued to provide money to expand the system. Most interceptors were fielded before their design had been successfully tested even once.

@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news This was possible due to missile defense's exemptions to “fly before you buy” regulations, allowing fielding of poorly tested equipment. The haste resulting from Pres Bush’s 2002 directive to rapidly build a missile defense ensured this would be the case.
ucsusa.org/shieldedfromov…

@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news Since then, the bias has been strongly in favor of building more Potemkin village defense rather than stopping to try to make it work. The incentives were set up that way. Policymakers want to say they’re doing something about North Korea, defense contractors are getting paid.

@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news And (hopefully) it doesn't matter that much, it never has to get used and shown not to work. But this pretense is not without cost. And it’s not just wasted money. allthingsnuclear.org/lgrego/missile…
mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/08/20/upd…

@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news This just-cancelled RKV initiative marked the seventh
time in 15 years that the MDA has made a major effort
to fix the unreliable kill vehicle, so far at great expense and
without clear success. gao.gov/assets/680/670…

@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news This leaves the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system to operate with its existing interceptors for the foreseeable future. Successful intercept tests for these variants: CE-I: 2/4, CE-II: 2/4, CE-II Block I: 2/2.

@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news The reliability issues that the RKV program was trying to fix are important. But that problem is distinct from trying to make a system that is effective against a real attack. Despite being "operational" for ~15 years, the system has never been tested under realistic conditions.

@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news The GMD tests have averaged less than 50 percent operational realism, according to the Pentagon’s Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation. gao.gov/products/GAO-1…

@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news The GMD system was to be expanded from 44 to 64 interceptors by 2023, using interceptors equipped with a new kill vehicle. This seems unlikely, especially as the Pentagon is saying it will be pursuing a “next-generation interceptor,” which could be quite different.

@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news And Undersec Griffin seems very interested in directed energy and space-based missile defense.

@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news Though the fact that a neutral particle beam missile defense program got through the Pentagon's budget process says something (not good) about the rigor of that process, too.

@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news Bottom line: strategic missile defense is hard to do. It’s impossible to do without a strong incentive for rigor and oversight. And it is likely to be unachievable to a high standard against a determined adversary. (GMD is designed for a small number of unsophisticated missiles.)

@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news Despite it never getting close to this promise, strategic missile defense plays an outsized role in thinking about nuclear weapons. It really shouldn’t.

@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news [Background: the kill vehicle is the heart of the hit-to-kill missile defense system. It's a file cabinet-sized object, basically optics with a propulsion system, gets launched and directs itself to smash into a nuclear warhead (or decoy) and destroy it with the force of impact.]