Thread by @RadioFreeTom

Putin's angry response today about US INF testing shouldn't be a surprise. He has every expectation that Trump will get the rest of the US defense establishment in line, and doesn't understand (apparently) that the military-industrial complex was more than happy to ditch INF. /1

That was a shot directly at Trump in an attempt to intimidate him. It'll work, but it won't matter much, since the nuclear fanboys have what they want: a license to spend on new nukes. This was not in Putin's game plan. He was counting on Obama's passivity or Trump's fear. /2

This should be a reminder, as @LawDavF and I have said many times, that Putin really isn't that good a strategist. He's been lucky in short-term gambles, and blessed with cooperative opponents, but long-term he's leading Russia into a dead-end that could lead to war. /3

@LawDavF What's really interesting here is that INF testing shows the USG (and I DO NOT REPRESENT THE USG, KTHANX) and the President really have separate policies. The President has no idea what the INF treaty did, and didn't care. Putin was violating it, something about China, etc. /4

But beyond that, the USG is kind of on a post-2014 course, except for the nuclear guys, who have picked up the ball - a football, one might say - and are running with it. Trump, for all his "I hereby order" stuff, isn't really running very much when it comes to policy. /5

And so now, for no good reason at all other than that Russia is run by a mobster and America is run by an ignoramus, two major powers are headed for an incredibly risky nuclear arms race right out of 1982. I saw this movie and I didn't like it the first time, either. /6x