Thread by @JPTasker

On this election eve, let's also think about what's at stake for the Senate. Indulge me for a minute. Right now, here are the standings: 58 Independent Senators Group, 29 CPC and 9 Liberal senators. #SenCA

Seven are non-affiliated - including three from the "G3" that represent the Liberal government. There are two vacancies. 8 Conservatives, 6 Liberals, 6 ISG and 1 non-affiliated (Speaker Furey) are due to retire between now and Oct. 2023. That's 21 retirements.

So, in theory, the next prime minister could be responsible for at least (pending death, voluntary retirement, etc.) 23 Senate appointments. If Trudeau wins, and all else is static, 73 of the 105 senators would be those who are part of the ISG or identify as independent.

By 2023, some 70 per cent of the chamber's members would be loyal in some way to Trudeau's Senate process. If Scheer wins, the number of Conservatives senators would rise to 42 in that four-year period.

But, throughout Scheer's hypothetical mandate, his CPC caucus would be very much in the minority. The Senate Liberal rump caucus will no longer be an official caucus, and will have just three members.

The numbers could very well be different if voters return a hung parliament. All this to say, because former PM Harper let so many vacancies pile up, it could be quite some time before a Conservative PM has a numerical majority in the upper house.

In turn, a substantive Liberal majority would see to that the vast majority of Senate seats are held by Independent and/or Trudeau loyalists for many years to come.