Alessandro Rossi from IFAC-CNR (again!) at #orbitaldebris2019 comparing collision probabilities associated with 'mega-constellations' and with intact derelict clusters in LEO.
To borrow an idea from the author Lauren Child, it’s the worry you hadn’t even thought to worry about that should worry you the most [from "Clarice Bean Don't Look Now" - an excellent read IMHO]. It's the cluster at 975 km that dominates the self-induced collision probability
That particular cluster has a substantially higher collision probability than a 'mega-constellation' when the background population is ignored. Given the large masses of the derelicts compared with the constellation satellites, the risk is also magnified.
In addition, 97% of all of the close approaches observed in Alessandro's simulations of the 'mega-constellations' (contributing to the accumulated collision probability) involved an operational constellation satellite, which has the potential to manoeuvre to avoid a collision
All-in-all, we should be much more worried about the intact derelicts already in LEO than the thousands of satellites we are expecting to be deployed in the near-future (from a #spacedebris perspective and ignoring other space traffic)
I forgot to add that Alessandro considered the cases where 5 or 8 constellation satellites failed each year. He also looked at a future projection of only 20 years.
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