Thread by @msandifo

Australia's energy emission problem is more with transport and LNG processing than electricity. Electricity generation emissions are falling fast, as coal generation is displaced by renewables and energy efficiency measures. We see that in trends in fossil fuel consumption.

But because we are not decarbonising transport, oil consumption is rising and that is exposing a huge risk beyond just the carbon risk. One reason is our domestic oil production is falling at more than 4% per year.

So we are increasingly reliant on net imports. And that impacts our current account amongst other things. Oil consumption costs around $270 million per day, and trend has us headed towards $500 million per day (~$150 billion per year) by 2050. That will all be imported.

Independent of emissions, our reliance on oil-based transport, and steep decline in local production, presents a massive current account problem, already at closing in on ~1/4 $billion a day. The solution is obvious - aggressive electrification.

A target of 4.2% p.a. reduction would see oil consumption decline at rate similar to coal, help realise our short term emissions targets (if the electricity is sourced by renewables), and provide a massive economic stimulus.

To better understand what that contributes to 2050 emissions reductions targets, and means in term of individual action, our current fossil fuel consumption is equivalent to about 6000 litres of oil per person per year. It is declining, at a rate of about 70 litres per year.

That is about 1.5 half tanks of petrol (did you notice?). Boosting that to 4 tanks of petrol per person per year and Oz would be on track to #zerocarbon2050.

see here ...