Thread by @ncdave4life

@andrewbostom @AlexBerenson 1/8 @inschool4life (Silverman), Hupert & @Alex_Washburne are very wrong. From S.Korean data (best & most complete data avail), we can calculate COVID-19 has fatality rate of 2.5%±0.4% in best of circumstances (w/ early detection & competent medical care).
sealevel.info/COVID-19_fatal…

@andrewbostom @AlexBerenson @inschool4life @Alex_Washburne 2/8 That's ≈20× as deadly as typical seasonal flu, based on data from a country where they needn't guess about number of undetected cases, since there are almost none: They identified nearly all cases, including even asymptomatic cases, via aggressive testing & contact-tracing.

@andrewbostom @AlexBerenson @inschool4life @Alex_Washburne 3/8 Twenty-eight million U.S. cases would be an 8.5% infection rate. If that many Americans had really been infected, then nearly everyone would have been exposed by now. There would be no remaining large populations free of the disease.

@andrewbostom @AlexBerenson @inschool4life @Alex_Washburne 4/8 If that were the case, the sudden, explosive outbreaks seen when populations like nursing homes, ships & prisons are infected could not happen. They only happen because those large populations, of hundreds or thousands of individuals, start out with NO infections at all.

@andrewbostom @AlexBerenson @inschool4life @Alex_Washburne 5/8 If 8.5% of the U.S. population had really been infected then there'd be no remaining large, uninfected populations.

We can work backward from num deaths to estimate num who were infected 10-14 days earlier. I did that, and calculated it based on both 2.5% & 4% mortality.

@andrewbostom @AlexBerenson @inschool4life @Alex_Washburne 6/8 The plausible U.S. range = between 1.1 and 4.6 undiagnosed infections for every identified case. Call it 2.85 ±1.75 undiagnosed cases per known case.

@andrewbostom @AlexBerenson @inschool4life @Alex_Washburne 7/8 Assuming that ratio is unchanged (tho it's probably dropped a bit), our true number of infected to date is 1.5 to 4.1 million, mid-range est= 2.8 million = 0.85% of U.S. population.

2.8 million, not 28 million.

@andrewbostom @AlexBerenson @inschool4life @Alex_Washburne 8/8 In other words, Silverman & Washburne's estimate is too high by a factor of about ten. Take note, Jim @gatewaypundit

(Email me for details on the arithmetic.)
sealevel.info/contact.html

@andrewbostom @AlexBerenson @inschool4life @Alex_Washburne @gatewaypundit 5/8 [resend] If 8.5% of U.S. population had really been infected there'd be no remaining large, uninfected populations.

We can work backward from num deaths to estimate num who were infected 10-14 days earlier. I did that, and calculated it based on both 2.5% & 4% mortality.

@andrewbostom @AlexBerenson @inschool4life @Alex_Washburne @gatewaypundit 9/8 Silverman, Hupert & @Alex_Washburne are wrong.
Their estimate of the true number of U.S. COVID-19 cases is too high by factor of about ten.
The U.S. COVID-19 fatality rate is above 2.5% (i.e., ≥ 20× deadlier than seasonal flu).

Here's the arithmetic:
sealevel.info/thegatewaypund…