Thread by @ncdave4life

@DrDavidKatz 1/18 Sweden's approach is catastrophic failure. They're nowhere near "herd immunity." They're doing even worse than USA. Here're their stats:
worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
Sweden population = 10.3 million. Do the math: Sweden per-capita CV-19 death toll to date is 38% worse than USA.

@DrDavidKatz 2/18 CV-19 has best case fatality rate ≥2.5%. That's the rate in S.Korea, where they identify infections early, via intensive testing and contact tracing. In most other countries, including the USA, diagnosis is usually tardy, & fatality rate is worse.

sealevel.info/COVID-19_fatal…

@DrDavidKatz 3/18 A 2.5% fatality rate is about 20x as deadly as the typical seasonal flu.

Do the math: 2.5% of 90% of 11.3 million = 1/4 million dead Swedes.

That's what it would take to achieve "herd immunity."

@DrDavidKatz 4/18 South Korea had only 1 CV-19 death yesterday (Apr 21), in country of 52 million. (0.02 per million pop.)

USA had 2,341 deaths yesterday, in country of 330 million. (7.1 per million pop.)

Sweden had 172 deaths yesterday, in country of 10.3 million. (16.7 per million pop.)

@DrDavidKatz 5/18 We need to emulate countries which are successful, like S. Korea & Taiwan, not countries which failed, like Sweden & Italy.

The USA can stop COVID-19, the way that South Korea stopped it: with intensive testing, and contact-tracing.

@DrDavidKatz 6/18 Lockdowns are a stopgap, to slow the spread, until we identify those with the disease. That's job #1 of the authorities, though many of them don't seem to understand it. The only reason we need general lockdowns is that we haven't yet identified who has the disease.

@DrDavidKatz 7/18 Every drugstore with drive-thru window should offer CV-19 tests, w/ results by email & text in 6-12 hours, & positive results also phoned. Positive tests should also fwd to authorities for contact-tracing. Every likely contact should be told to self-isolate & get tested.

@DrDavidKatz 8/18 Everyone's first CV-19 test should be paid for by gov't, as should be all tests for every symptomatic person, and all tests for every suspected contact of someone with a positive test result. (Sound expensive? It's a pittance, compared to the $2.2 trillion bailout/stimulus.)

@DrDavidKatz 9/18 The devastation to the economy increases with the toll of the disease, and the economic damage will only decrease if and when we get the disease under control. If we "give up" and let the disease run rampant, the devastation to the economy will be MUCH worse.

@DrDavidKatz 10/18 Someone w/ positive test result should be quarantined, and their health monitored, so if they develop serious symptoms they can be hospitalized and get appropriate treatment. They also need to be retested periodically, to learn when they can be released from quarantine.

@DrDavidKatz 11/18 It might also be prudent to test him for antibodies. (Lack of symptoms + persistent lack of antibodies = suspicion of a "false positive" test result.)

@DrDavidKatz 12/18 Test reliability might vary. If quickest tests aren’t most reliable, then positive test results (or negative w/ other cause to suspect CV-19), should cause re-test with more reliable test. Anyone suspected of CV-19 should self-quarantine, until confirmed he's disease-free.

@DrDavidKatz 13/18 CV-19 has infectiousness similar to measles. "Herd immunity" for a disease so infectious requires that more than ≈90% of the population become immune, either by surviving the disease, or getting vaccinated, or some combination — but we have no vaccine for CV-19.

@DrDavidKatz 14/18 CV-19 has BEST case fatality rate ≥2.5%. That's the rate in S.Korea, where they identify infections early, via intensive testing and contact tracing. In most other countries, including USA, diagnosis is usually tardy, and fatality rate is worse.
sealevel.info/COVID-19_fatal…

@DrDavidKatz 15/18 A 2.5% fatality rate is 20x as deadly as typical seasonal flu, in USA.

Do the math: 2.5% of 90% of 330 million = 7.1 million dead Americans. That's what it would take to achieve "herd immunity" in the United States.

"Herd immunity strategy" w/o vaccine = nat'l suicide.

@DrDavidKatz 16/18 What's more, it might not even work. "Herd immunity" not only requires that 90% of the population become immune, it requires that they STAY immune, for years, so they can't be re-infected. We don't know whether that will happen with this disease.

@DrDavidKatz 17/18 Additionally, high numbers of infected people cause higher numbers of disease mutations, which makes the disease that much harder to control. So the "herd immunity" strategy = the hundreds-of-different-disease-strains strategy.

@DrDavidKatz 18/18 Fortunately, we can stop the disease WITHOUT "herd immunity." South Korea and Taiwan have both done just that, through intensive testing and contact-tracing. The USA CAN do the same. We MUST do the same!!
worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…

sealevel.info/S_Korea_COVID-…

@DrDavidKatz Correction: Yesterday was April 22, not April 21. (Those figures are for April 22.)