Thread by @ListVoteSense

Beware misinformation about using the list to supposedly 'get rid of unionists' and elect pro-indy MSPs.

#ListVoteSense

This article is full of errors:

sputniknews.com/columnists/202…

"Tactical Independence Voting Can Wipe Out the Unionists – Let's Do It"

The title itself is completely misleading. Modelling of Panelbase poll shows that unless indy Party X can get 6% bare minimum, unionists are likely to *gain* seats.

If there's two indy parties, even worse.

"Kenny McAskill has raised his head above the parapet & treated the movement like adults by admitting what is obvious to all but the willfully blind."

The people who are willfully blind are those who continually spout assertions without any data modelling to back up their claims

"Voting SNP in both the Constituency and Regional List ballots at next May's Holyrood election is not just a wasted vote it also helps the very unionist politicians we seek to defeat."

Not true. If the SNP vote were to haemorrhage, then the unionists can pick up seats.

"Scottish Parliament Voting System is Complex but Predictable"

All that's predicatable is how the AMS algorithm crunches the votes.

What's *not* predicatable is the votes parties get and how the seat allocation plays out - which depends entirely on vote numbers.

"Glasgow: SNP secured 111,101 List votes. 45% of all List votes cast in city. So how many Regional List seats did they win? The answer is zero."

Because of increased support, SNP now predicted to win a Glasgow seat - but if 9% of SNP vote goes to Party X, Lab will win it instead

"It means YES City of Glasgow represented by 6 [unionist] List MSPs.
Those independence supporters who gave both their votes to the SNP in Glasgow not only wasted their vote they inadvertently assisted the election of unionists."

IN 2021 they will ensure Lab *doesn't* win a seat

"Voting system pitfalls of "both votes SNP" strategy promoted by SNP were highlighted by myself & others but the warnings were ignored, dismissed or denigrated."

Because they have no basis in reality.

Data modelling shows that loss of SNP list vote will lead to unionist gains.

"953,000 people gave their List vote to SNP but in six of eight regional list seats, those votes counted for nothing. SNP won only 4 List seats of the 56 available."

If the SNP were able to increase it's list vote by just 2%, it could win list seats in 7/8 regions.

"I urged YES supporters to cast both their votes for the independence cause. Their constituency vote for SNP, the main party of independence, but 2nd vote for another progressive and anti-austerity pro-independence alternative."

Solidarity on 0.6% and RISE on 0.5%. Zero MSPs

This is precisely what contributed to poor showing of SNP in 2016. If list vote *had* matched constituency, then they'd have won 4-5 more seats.

A self fulfilling prophesy: don't vote SNP as it can't win, but reason it didn't win more in 2016 because it didn't get *enough* votes

"Four years on & clear signs lessons of 2016 have sunk in & independence voters willing to cast votes wisely"

Four years on, and it seems all too many have drawn entirely the *wrong* lessons from 2016: it has led to completely erroneous assumptions being fixed in stone.

"The fact even SNP MPs like Kenny McAskill now willing to admit "two votes SNP" strategy "doesn't work" for independence cause significant progress."

Doubt he has made these comments on basis of *any* data modelling whatsoever or he'd have realised this is an incorrect assertion

A remarkable poll by Wings over Scotland illustrates potential for tactical voting to wipe out unionist representation."

Based on fantastical notion of hundreds of thousands of SNP voters abandoning party.

And voting for indy list parties more likely to elect *more* unionists:

"Other credible surveys like Business For Scotland indicating well over half SNP voters now open to idea of supporting alternative party"

Credible? An entirely self selecting online social media poll – about as credible as a Twitter poll putting support for independence on 96%.

"The Independence Cause is Bigger Than Any One Party or Individual"

Which is why the list party cultists have to swallow the pill that only the SNP and Greens are capable of winning list seats. Will they put independence over their egos and their hatred of the SNP and Greens?

"The cause of independence is much bigger & more important than narrower party interests of SNP. McAskill was criticised for his comments but reality of voting system cannot be ignored or deflected any longer."

Comments worth nothing - need data modelling to prove his assertion.

"That narrow majority can become a massive majority if the 2nd vote strategy is sorted."

Wrong, you can't 'game' the list vote – you'll likely find by not voting SNP, you'll actually see unionists winning seats, as we have seen: Lab & LD taking predicted SNP seats.

A list party would need to get near 6% of the vote before the indy bloc would make any gains, and indeed overcome any losses suffered if less than 6% voted for it:

"Potential for a well organised alternative group to harness enough votes to secure scores of seats at expense of unionists is huge & real."

To imagine parties that haven't even registered on a poll, let alone attract 5-10%, can secure 'scores of seats' is delusional fantasy.

"It is incumbent upon whole movement to read writing on wall & agree a progressive party stands next May & sweeps up seats otherwise be won by unionists"

It such a party X exceeds all expectations and sweeps up seats', modelling shows it'll be from the SNP/Greens *not* unionists