This was posted in reply to me earlier today, presumably by a supporter of the ISP.
I asked where the safe list seats are, but no reply.
But this raises an important point about there being "safe list seats" for the SNP.
We are told that the ISP isn't planning to stand candidates in the South of Scotland list, because in 2016 the SNP won three of its four list seats there.
f this is true, then they are basing their strategy on over four year old results, and ignoring the current polling situation.
Modelling the latest Panelbase poll, shows that on current levels of support, the SNP isn't likely to win *any* list seats in the South of Scotland:
The observant among you will notice that it is only on the 7th seat allocation that the SNP quota comes near the top value (which is 16,096 for the Tories).
If the SNP if it had an extra 1k list votes (144,883 instead of 143,907 - a 5.5% swing from Greens), they SNP would it.
Thus #BothVotesSNP is crucial in the South of Scotland if the SNP is to win a seat in the list under current polling.
A thousand votes more could ensure the Tories don't win that last seat.
If you vote fringe indy party instead of SNP in that region, you may as well vote Tory.
But getting back to original point - because of 2016, it is assumed by proponents of indy list parties that SNP *cannot* win list seats outside of South Scotland and the Highlands.
But the latest polling shows SNP will now win list seats in Glasgow and Central Scotland.
In 2016, the SNP won list seats in H&I and South - but is now projected to win seats in H&I, Glasgow and Central.
With the SNP projected on Panelbase poll to go from 3 South of Scotland list seats to 0, the notion that there are "safe SNP list seats" is for the birds.
Fact that proponents of your 'Vote Party X for guaranteed Indy supermajority' seem unaware of variable regional dynamics should be a red flag to anything thinking of voting for them.
No one can know where are few thousand or even hundred votes siphoned off will cost SNP seats.
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.