Thread by @zorinaq

By August 12 Florida will report 150-200 covid-19 deaths per day.

My forecasting model is open source and has proven accurate: github.com/mbevand/florid…

This forecast update (2020-07-26) has some major changes:

1/N

I scrapped model 1 (redundant with model 2) and model 3 (was the least accurate of the 5 models).

All my curves are now charted with a simple moving average instead of *centered* moving average. Less confusing.

I now produce a BEST GUESS estimate, pretty tight interval.

2/N

Notice how has an extremely wide confidence interval (dotted pink lines): by August 12 it estimates between 70 and 250 deaths/day. Whereas my best guess interval is 150-200.

So how does the best guess estimate work?

3/N

The best guess estimate is based on the age-stratified CFR from model 5, that is the Case Fatality Ratios calculated on Florida cases.

I believe model 5 most closely predicts the rate of increase/decrease of daily deaths. At least experimentally I've seen that, see chart:

4/N

However model 5 slightly underestimates deaths for reasons I've explained before. I have not yet found the time to fix it properly, so for now my best guess is a quick hack that should still produce decent results

See this explanation in my README (github.com/mbevand/florid…):

5/N

Also my forecast can predict 18 days ahead of time. I used to lose a day (predicting 17 days) because I ignored the last day of data as it contains incomplete data. Now I've committed a proper workaround (github.com/mbevand/florid…)

6/N

Finally, I've also made my charts colorblind friendly, using various linestyles (dashed, dotted, etc)

7/N

Notice how *YYG*'s forecast...

YYG is covid19-projections.com/us-fl

My previous forecasts are in the GitHub repository:
github.com/mbevand/florid…

But here is the timestamped evidence:

7/5:

7/11:

7/14:

7/18:

7/22:

8/N

I predicted 150-200 covid deaths per day by Aug 12.

Florida is reporting 165 deaths per day.

My #PredictionWasCorrect

See my latest & other forecasts at github.com/mbevand/florid… .