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UK in a Changing Europe is an academic think tank providing impartial, research-based analysis of the critical issues facing the UK.

Jul 30, 2020, 8 tweets

As ballots for the Liberal Democrat's new leader opens today, we've just released a NEW short report:

Where next for the @LibDems?

It's by @ProfTimBale, @Aron_Cheung, & @DrAlanWager & loos at the electoral geography of the party.

READ the highlights below. 🔻

#Thursdaythread

While in most places they've dropped out of contention, the report authors identify a 'yellow halo' of rising support since 2010.

How competitive are the Lib Dems now?

This graph puts the partial rebound in 2019 in a bit of context: the party is in second place in 91 seats, and has over 30% of the vote in 50. Miles away from 2010, but in a better place than after 2015.

The Liberal Democrats have been in search of a core vote? But do they now have one?

They either hold or are competitive (within a 10% swing) of 30% of the constituencies in the top decile in terms of number of graduates. 🎓

It is clearer in constituency terms than it ever has been who the Lib Dems are challenging:

in 23 of 29 seats that the Lib Dems could reasonably claim to be well positioned to win, it's a @Conservatives vs LD contest.

They are now within a small 5% swing in a dozen of these.

Another way of illustrating this is where the @LibDems and @UKLabour are in direct competition:

increasingly, pretty much nowhere at all.

What advice would report author @DrAlanWager give to the @LibDems' new leader to double the number of seats?

If you'd like to find out more, READ the full report here:

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…

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