Thread by @zorinaq

New forecast: deaths will peak in Florida around August 6 between 160-190 deaths/day.

CFR increased from 1.2 to 1.5% because the median age is higher

My previous forecasts have proven very accurate. See open-source modeling code & doc on GitHub: github.com/mbevand/florid…

1/N

In addition to charting deaths by reported date (thick black solid curve), I also chart deaths by exact date of death ("deaths by day", thin black solid curve)

Many don't understand that "deaths by day" is always higher than "deaths by date reported" in periods of increase

2/N

On average it takes Florida about 10 days to report 85% of deaths in the "deaths by day" dataset (see my other analysis: github.com/mbevand/florid…).

So my forecast charts only show "deaths by day" up to 10 days before the present day, so as to not be misleading.

3/N

But because data up to 10 days ago is still incomplete (on average it misses 15% of deaths), I make an effort to adjust "deaths by day" to complete the data.

This is represented by the thin black long-dashed curve:

4/N

My #PredictionWasCorrect — deaths in Florida peaked at 185 per day on Aug 4 as measured by the 7-day moving average

See the latest forecast and all historical ones at github.com/mbevand/florid… .