This is a difficult message to convey. Is acquired immunity helping to bend the curve (and sustain suppression) in places that have been hard-hit? Maybe. Should that be interpreted as an “all clear” signal in places like NY, etc? Not at all.
As with everything else about the pandemic, it’s not one thing alone. It appears to be a combination of some degree of acquired immunity plus some degree of sustained reduction in contacts outside the home that’s at work in hard-hit places.
And it’s unclear how long the protective effect of a 20% infection rate might last. Key, then, not to relax restrictions on high-risk settings (bars, indoor dining) by too much, even in places that seem to be doing well.
In addition, unclear whether the overall reduction in contacts outside the home happening in places that have been hard-hit can be sustained long-term. The longer a place goes without experiencing a spike, the harder it may be to convince people they need to keep it up.
For places that haven’t yet been hit hard, critical to keep the heavy death toll of getting to even a 20% infection rate foremost in mind. Suppression CAN be achieved w/o tens of thousands of deaths. It requires public health infrastructure. Other countries have shown the way.
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