Appreciate this thoughtful analysis around the influence of herd immunity on infection rates. I think one underappreciated aspect of this is just how much race/ethnicity has been a facet of this so far, especially in the states identified in this tweet.
Take Arizona, for example. Whites comprise 54% of the population in AZ, but only 17% of the Covid-19 cases reported.
In FL Whites are 53% of the pop, but just 21% of the cases. kff.org/other/state-in…
To the extent that herd immunity is influencing transmission patterns in US states, it needs to be well understood that these effects are likely quite different in different populations.
We can't forget social distancing behaviors reducing Rt are unevenly distributed across racial/ethnic/class lines. As many have pointed out essential workers, with disproportionate representation from racial and ethnic minorities, have less ability to avoid risks.
I realize that most might already understand this, but wanted to emphasize it here. This is a bit part of the heterogeneity in contact patters that is often referenced.
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