Thread by @joshmich

A few weeks ago @ForeignAffairs asked a group of experts if they agreed or disagreed with the following statement (and level of confidence):

"The daily tally of COVID-19 cases around the world will be higher at the beginning of 2021 than it is today."

foreignaffairs.com/ask-the-expert…

Prediction is a fool's game, especially when it comes to pandemics, but even so a number of us responded. Most agreed with the statement, some with fairly high levels of confidence.

I disagreed with the statement (though with little confidence).

When we were asked to weigh in, the global average number of new cases was surpassing 200,000 daily. So I thought, how might that level compare to the tally we will see in the first weeks of 2021?

Based on nothing but speculation, my thinking was that even with a fall wave in the northern hemisphere, by the time we cross into 2021 we're more likely to see declining numbers that would total less than 200,000 cases daily.

My optimistic read is that most northern hemisphere countries are better positioned and less likely to be caught by surprise with big epidemic waves.

Another optimistic take (wishful thinking?) is that the US would have seen the worst of its epidemic by early next year, and I hope (pray) the huge number of daily cases we're seeing now doesn't continue through early 2021, even there is a fall surge here.

Anyway, who knows? Will be interesting if we take a look at global numbers in early 2021 to see where things stand and compare against our cloudy crystal balls.