Thread by @ChrisRAlliance

Predicted grades:
accuracy and impact.
Dr Gill Wyness, UCL Institute of Education December 2016.

"I find evidence that the system of predicted grades is inaccurate. Only 16% of
applicants achieved the A-level grade points that they were predicted to achieve,
based on their best

three A-levels. However, the vast majority (75% of applicants)
were over-predicted – ie their grades were predicted to be higher than they actually
achieved. Students from disadvantaged backgrounds and state schools are more
likely to be over-predicted, whilst those at

independent schools receive more accurate
predictions. However, accuracy varies dramatically according to the A-level attainment
of the student with lower attaining applicants far more likely to have their grades
over-predicted. Therefore, after controlling for prior attainment

and background
characteristics, students from state schools are actually less likely to be over-
predicted than those in independent and grammar schools.
Meanwhile, at the top of the attainment distribution, grades are slightly more likely to
be under-predicted, & among these

high-attaining students, applicants from low
income backgrounds are significantly more likely to have their grades under-predicted
than those from high-income backgrounds.

This is important because under-predicted
candidates are also more likely to apply to, and to be accepted to a university which they
are overqualified for. This could in turn affect their future labour market outcomes."