1. 538 gave Trump a better than 1-in-4 chance of winning in 2016, so it’s hard to say they were wrong.
2. However, it IS true that the swing states polls were wayyy off.
THREAD
3. Still, even though many poll analysts are giving Biden similar odds to Clinton, I think his odds are better, notwithstanding the incumbent advantage AND electoral college bias towards GOP.
Here’s why
@laurelEwest
4. 2018. The 2018 mid-terms feel like a better comparable voter verdict on Trump than 2016, which was a campaign about Clinton emails.
In 2018 the polls accurately foretold the Blue Wave, & that’s the dynamic at play now.
5. Biden’s appeal reaches across to moderate Republicans while keeping the Dems united.
His favourables are very high for a challenger, while HRC’s were historically low.
6. While 2016 was choppy & dramatic, 2020 has been steady.
Biden’s brand is so strong it’s hard (not impossible but really really hard) to see an October surprise collapse it like the Comey letter.
7. Biggest risk to Biden is voter suppression/mail interference/covid weirdness.
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