Thread by @davekarpf

Here's what I think will matter from tonight's speech/this convention:

The premise of the RNC is that everything was going great, COVID has been a blip, but we're totally past it and back to fine now.

That's comforting to an audience that wants to believe it. But it's fleeting.

It's nine and a half weeks until the election. That's a really long time. Particularly now, when every week brings another disruptive horror.

Nine and a half weeks ago was June 16th. What news do you recall from June 16th? What has stuck with you that long?

Reality is the unavoidable problem for the Trump campaign.

They just spent four weeks utterly ignoring reality. I'm sure that felt nice for the supporters who tuned in -- it sure felt infuriating to us critics!

But, tomorrow, reality will start setting in again.

What's happening in the NBA and MLB right now will probably have a deeper impact.

Professional athletes -- the people we turn to for a distraction from the dismal news -- have gone on strike, refusing to offer that distraction.

I don't know how the election will turn out.

I don't know because this is not going to be a normal election. It will be waged mid-pandemic. It will be waged amidst foreign interference. It will be waged amidst unprecedented voter suppression - both legal and illegal.

But as people rev up their hot take machines, something to keep in mind:

This convention will be barely remembered. This speech will evaporate from memory. They were built upon the paper-thin foundations of escapist lies. The reality of 2020 is too harsh for that.

This election is a fight over whether the USA continues to be a (badly bruised/barely functional) democracy at all.

The fight will be hard, and unfair. The results will be far too close for comfort. But that's not because of their speeches. It's because of their abuse of power.