Will a significant increase in seriously ill patients & deaths inevitably follow from increased positive tests?
Every country is different, but the German experience is worth looking at.
New cases in Germany increased about 300% from mid-July to a peak on 24 Aug. They have been decreasing since then.
Deaths did increase a little but never averaged more than 8 per day. Similarly with ICU patients – an increase from the low on 24 July but no big surge.
Note deaths & new cases are the 7-day averages. Also ICU measurement changed from 4 Aug so I have scaled down values up to 3rd Aug to make them more comparable.
Here are the ICUs on their own so you can see the ups and downs more clearly.
So far, the UK experience has been quite similar: big increase in new positive cases but not much change in ICU/deaths.
That could change of course, but clearly not inevitable that big increase in cases leads to surge in serious illness/deaths.
Source: rki.de/DE/Content/Inf…
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