A few more thoughts about polling averages--
Below is @FiveThirtyEight’s latest 2020 national chart going back to March.
And RCP’s for the same period up to E-day in 2016. 1/
Although 538 gives Biden the same odds today as it gave Clinton as a final projection in 2016 (71%), this is a markedly different race.
@FiveThirtyEight Biden has reached and held a SOLID 50% support for the last 3 months--
A level of support Clinton never achieved after Trump was nominated.
@FiveThirtyEight Biden’s lead has held solid at >7% for 3 months.
Any variance has not come from an erosion of Biden’s support, but Trump gaining only modestly among undecideds.
Gains which are fleeting.
Of course, as everyone knows, national polls don’t decide the election--but they’re a good indicator of national mood.
See 2018.
@FiveThirtyEight In a race this steady, it’s hard to imagine an October surprise upending things, as happened in 2016.
As for FB disinformation, although we see it spreading, there’s no sign of it eroding Biden’s support.
@FiveThirtyEight Even early in the race allegations of Biden Ukraine corruption and a claim of sexual assault fell flat and disappeared.
The brand is extremely resilient. Clinton’s wasn’t.
Russia, Wikileaks & Trump exploited the years of character assault/misogyny that undermined trust.
Frankly, it seems much more likely that Trump will see a September/October surprise.
His base will hold, but as happened to Clinton in 2016, luke-warm supporters may not show.
Even so, a 29% chance for Trump is almost unbearable to imagine.
It’s like a 2/3 chance you’re healthy, vs 1/3 you have stage 4 terminal cancer.
And of course this assumes no poll-hacking or mail-in vote interference.
Which is terrifying, but also quite difficult to pull off without a trace.
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