STILL THE JOBS CHART THAT WORRIES ME MOST
I wrote about permanent layoffs for the @markets newsletter today, and how even with an overall recovery that's clearly faster than expected, they're still getting worse at a quicker pace than the Great recession bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
@markets BTW, I think when thinking about the election, it's going to be extra-difficult to plug in some "economic fundamentals" into a model. Top-line GDP growth may be surging, and unemployment is coming down. But beneath the surface, deeper labor market pain is continues to grow.
A middle class, professional thinking about the state of the economy may have been extremely worried about their job in March/April. Then relatively sanguine in June/July, and then increasingly anxious August - October.
Now bear in mind that there's dual-Y axes here, but I think this chart really drives home how weird the situation is right now, and how hard it is to say whether the economy is improving or worsening. And why it may be impossible to gauge its electoral impact this time.
Anyway! Sign up for the @markets newsletter here. link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/join/4wm/marke…
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