A quick thread on where the vote by mail (VBM) requests stand at this point. Sorry for the megachart, I'll explain as I go!
First, all of the partisan data in here is modeled party, for the sake of consistency.
Looking at this column, we see that Dems lead in VBM requests in every state but 4 (AR, ID, IN, MI).
Keep in mind, this includes automatic/permanent VBM requests, which may explain MI.
Compare this to the partisan distribution of the 2016 electorate in these 15 states, where Dems trailed in all but 5 of the 15 states. Again, this is generic modeled partisanship of the voters who cast a ballot in '16.
Comparing the Dem ID margin of the VBM requests in these states to the Dem ID margin of the '16 electorate we find that the VBM requests are more Dem than the '16 electorate in every state. Wide margins in several states, including VA, WI, PA. MI also looks better in this context
Looking at the share of VBM requests coming from voters who did not cast a ballot in '16, Dems lead Republicans in key states, including FL, ME, MI, PA, and WI.
That's all for now, work to do, will share more thoughts later. Thanks for following!
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