The SF Bay Area's housing goals for 2022–2030 are based on population projections by the CA Department of Finance. ABAG/MTC also modeled how changes in housing prices would impact population. It's all in one chart.
Lets' talk DOF county-level projections. Folks, they are Wild™.
Alameda and Contra Costa Counties are expected to grow by >350K and >500K apiece. Meanwhile, San Francisco is projected to gain less than 100K people. Marin: only 20 thousand people.
In the last 50 years, SF has added over 370 thousand jobs but only 60 thousand homes. If we change nothing, the state does not expect our housing deficit to change.
That means more supercommuters from our far-flung counties, instead of Marin close by.
The other lines on the graph show projections made by ABAG/MTC using analysis tools from Regional Economic Models, Inc (REMI).
RC5: baseline
R5H0C, R5H1C, and R5H2C: more homes
ABAG also commented on each country. Here's what they say about Marin:
"Marin remains a county with many areas off limits to growth for a mix of topographical, conservation and political reasons, though a sizeable share of its workforce commutes to San Francisco."
San Francisco does not have zoned capacity to even meet its historical jobs-housing deficit—to say nothing of future growth. That's nothing short of irresponsible.
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