Chatter suddenly rising of inflation risk maps almost perfectly to this same juncture during the great recession. After the Fed showed it could put a floor under asset prices, the trumpets sounded. But, it didn't happen then, and isn't going to happen this time either. $SPY $TLT
The apex of inflation chatter will likely hit next year, when Green New Deal policies edge closer to reality. But it will just be Lucy and the Football all over again, because $GND (at least in energy-infrastructure terms) is ultimately deflationary, wringing out costs, waste.
Imagine looking back on us from the year 2120, and realizing "those people" seriously believed that investing in cheaper, faster, better, lower-cost infrastructure was both a bad investment, and...wait for it...inflationary. Can't make it up.
The observation here is of course quite correct, and part of a larger 40 year program of self-harm, in which the US has failed to invest in itself like other normal nations across the OECD. Let's stop the self-harm, and invest in ourselves.
The US has had shitty GDP, ultra-low fertility rates, and crap wage growth for 20 years. And a big factor in those trends is the massive underinvestment in the critical platforms for growth: water, transit, modern city planning. It's almost like we need a Marshall Plan.
This Spring I returned from a short trip to London--a place where I lived in the 1990's, that I criticised, that I snickered at. All has changed. Now it's London that is modern. Mega modern. Returning to the US is like going back in time by 30 years. It's the dumbest thing ever.
London is now an amusement park of smartly targeted public investment, a kaleidoscope of gorgeous rejuvenations, uncoverings. I could write a 5000 word love letter to this genius London Bridge station project that revived a district, fits into the Shard.
architecture.com/awards-and-com…
Boston, DC transit systems need to be rebuilt. Intermodal investments are needed in many places East of the Mississippi. Whole train network needs to be modernized. You could literally just print the money, and you'd get a + return on investment, all paid back with GDP growth.
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