Thread by @Morecoldbeer

Social Security and the 2020 Election. Let me start with this. This matches what Mnunchin said on Sunday talk shows about 3 weeks ago. If Trump wins, there will be no more contributions to the Social Security Trust Fund. The employers' contributions have already been deferred 1/

2/Taxes, income from leases and license, fees and the like go into the general fund. For more than 80 years social security contributions have gone into the Social Security Trust Fund. Both the employee and the employer contrite 6.2% of the employee's gross income into the Fund

3/ up to an income limit. The contributions are made weekly, monthly or quarterly depending upon the amount contributed. From that fund benefits are paid to those who have reached a certain age, have worked at least 40 quarters. The amount of benefits is based on the amount

4/contributed, the years worked and the age when benefits are first received. So far, so good? Notice that the Trust Fund was designed to be separate from the political fighting over taxes and the budget. No candidate could claim a chicken in every pot and a $5,000 benefit check

5/Similarly no candidate could claim the opposition intended to cut Social Security benefits. Until Congress began to “borrow” the cash in Social Security. It has been bipartisan (I’ll try to break the borrowing down by party at some other time). Congress left an IOU

6/ treasury certificates). For the last decade or so deficit hawks have called for a reduction in Social Security benefits. Why? Benefits have nothing to do with the general fund EXCEPT Congress has to redeem those pesky IOUs it left when it grabbed the cash. By cutting benefits

7/the amount Congress needed to replenish the Fund was lowered. Fewer IOUs had to be redeemed. Then TrumpTax came along. To put this in perspective, deficit spending becomes important. States, local governments and households live on a budget where income and expenses match. Not

8/ so with the federal government. Of course, I don’t need a Seal team in my backyard to fight off black clad Antifas who are flying around the country or is it border agents to fight off MS-13 arriving in caravans to rape and pillage. Wait, wut that’s so 2018. Trump panics are

9/ so confusing. But you get the idea. Deficit spending happens when the amount received is less than the amount spent. For TrumpTax to work as claimed, it would have to generate a 5% GNP increase. Well, it may have hit 4% for a coupe of months but for the most part was around

10/ 3%. Sooooo, the deficit greatly increased. Indeed everyone is saying they’ve never seen a deficit like this. This was before COVID wrecked the economy. The deficit exploded - income was down Bigly and expenses from the Cares Act and others increased the deficit exponentially

11/Without the cash infusion, the Trust Fund will be out of cash by mid-2023. No more benefits from the Fund. Also if benefits are paid from the general fund those pesky IOUs can be ripped up. So what will happen to the cash in the Fund? It can stay in the Fund and be used to pay

12/benefits until 2023. BTW, the 2023 date comes from the actuary for the Fund - not something I made up. Or Trump can grab the cash in Early 2021. Our benefits would be paid from the general fund and the Trust Fund would be gone. Trump could then claim a surplus, the tubes would

13/ believe him, but that would not be true. Cash wise great but future liabilities- YIKES!!! So what’s the big deal if Social Security benefits are paid from the Trust Fund or the general fund. Social Security benefits then become part of the political process in every budget.

14/ For those who rely upon Social Security benefits, (or who have parents, grandparents, aunts and uncles who do)how do you think AARP will do against the gas lobby or the oil lobby or any other big time lobby. Put another way, would you want your benefits based upon money that

15/ is in the Trust Fund or Trump’s promise to pay those benefits. FIN