“Judging from earlier scandals, revelations about President Donald Trump's deceit about coronavirus and derogation of fallen soldiers won't repel many of his supporters.
“But that doesn't mean the revelations don't hurt him. The furor they touched off has kept the President from tackling a re-election challenge much harder than preserving his loyal ‘base.’ cnn.com/2020/09/13/pol…
“With support hovering around 43% nationally, Trump needs a chunk of new supporters to overcome Democratic nominee Joe Biden's lead. He has just more than seven weeks to lure them. And he faces a significant obstacle that he didn't in 2016: a smaller pool of available prospects.
“The circumstances of 2020 limit his opportunities for several overlapping reasons:
“Fewer voters remain undecided.
“Fewer voters have parked their preferences with third-party candidates.
“Fewer voters face the cross-pressures of antipathy toward their choices.
“Result: in CNN's post-convention poll, just 7% reported disliking both candidates. Most favored Biden. Compare that to 18% in 2016, where most broke for trump.”
“The vagaries of the Electoral College mean Biden could lose even while capturing 51% support nationally. Drawing within 3-4 points in the popular vote, election modelers say, would give Trump a reasonable chance.
“But in individual swing states, anything over 50% wins. And Biden already reaches or approaches that level in enough battlegrounds to win.”
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