Gross Enrolment Ratio in Tertiary Education = no of people of age 18-23 years enrolled in college vs total number of people in that age group
Eligibility Enrolment Ratio = no of people who of age 18-23 years enrolled in college vs total number of people in that age group /1
who have completed higher secondary school.
India: GER = 27%, EER = 65%
TN: GER=47%, EER ~ 80% (data not available)
This means 80% of people who finish +2 enrol themselves in college.
+2 pass percentages are 90% +
76% of colleges are private unaided. What does this mean? /2
The higher education industry has hit saturation. This is why among the highest ad spends come from educational institutions. Major Private Universities are expanding to other states. Engineering Colleges are closing PG classes and rationalizing departments and changing to /3
Arts and Science courses. TN also has the highest rate of education loan defaults in India. There are two ways out
- Build out capacity in post graduation in existing disciplines
- Open up a new market
The first approach is bound to fail, since students would rather take out /4
a 25 lakh loan to study abroad with an opportunity to find employment abroad than spend 5 lakhs on another 2 years with limited marginal utility.
This is where medicine comes in. That MBBS degree does not guarantee high enough earnings, so an MD/MS is usually unavoidable /5
This creates something of a captive market for 7 years with the opportunity of a couple of years' cheap employment in a teaching hospital as a trainee doctor in between.
This is being captured by countries such as China, Phillipines, Kyrgyzstan, Poland and Russia. /6
4000 students go abroad for studying medicine each year. This is a Rs 2000-2500 crore per year opportunity.
How does NEET screw this up?
Earlier, private colleges had management quota seats where eligibility tests were administered exclusively. Standardized tests with publicly /7
shared scores will eventually hit them. Next, NEET is just the beginning, Union MHRD will end up introducing standardized tests for all tertiary education. This introduces unpredictability and inability to generate revenue out of this. Private Univs will have to compete on /8
cost. Race to the bottom of profitability assured.
Closing thread. These in just my hypothesis. Do think it over for yourself and get back to me if you have a consistent counter-hypothesis. Don't engage in low-intensity, high-noise activity on this thread, please. /END
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