Time for another French Covid numbers update. There have been 7 days of figures since my last thread. The trend remains worrying but not yet alarming. The numbers of cases, deaths and hospital patients are growing steadily but not – yet – exploding as they did in late March. 1/7
The government – or rather mostly Emmanuel Macron in person, according to Le Monde – thinks that drastic new action to control the strengthening pandemic is a/ not yet needed and b/ might be counter-productive. Government strategy is “wait and see” plus local crackdowns 2/7
There were 9,784 new cases in the 24hrs up to 2pm today, after three days when the stats fell into the 6 to 8,000 range. The rolling average for the last 7 days is 8,755, compared to 7,320 a week ago and 5,518 the week before that. Rising…not exploding 3/7
There were 46 C19 deaths in the last day after 9 yesterday. The 7-day average is now 35.8, compared to 31.2 last week and 21 in the week before that. Worrying but not yet alarming. 4/7
On the other hand the number of acute cases is rising steeply. There were 803 C19 patiemts in intensive care tonight, compared to 599 a week ago and just over 400 at the end of July. 5/7
There are 5,819 C19 patients in French hospitals tonight compared to 5,003 a week ago and 3,464 two weeks ago. This is still far below the hospital and ICU populations at the peak of the “first wave” in April – 7,200 and 33,000. 6/7
The govt's wait and see strategy –not fully admitted or explained – is based on signs that the rate of positive testing has stabilised at around 5.4%. In some areas, notably Paris, the rate is falling.
A 2nd wave but a small one? Start of an autumn/winter crisis? On verra. 7/7
In 4/7 the mortality figure for yesterday should have read 49. Not 9
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