In our paper w/ @ChikinaLab we
1) account for preferential mixing in age groups
2) do not require perfect isolation of at risk groups
3) do not assume that we can "turn off transmission" (indeed, we assume transmission gradually reverts to normal levels)1/
Joel is also concerned that aged-care facilities could support an epidemic (not localized outbreaks at individual centers) on their own without any involvement of younger individuals (staff/doctors/etc). 2/8
An earlier discussion on this ended abruptly:
I think its fair to say this is an unusual viewpoint.
Threads like this which dismiss age-targeted strategies out of hand inevitably work with the most simplistic and absolutist version of an idea. I have not seen an argument that we cannot have a quantitative... 3/8
effect on relative transmission rates for different age groups (and yes I have given examples of how one can start to go about this👇, but there has also been not enough effort to generate these ideas because we think they are too dangerous!). 4/8
To be honest I found threads like this more compelling in March. Having seen what happened in places like FL, it should be clear that for every week we could have preferentially advanced the increase in social activity among younger people (even it was accompanied by a..
smaller timeshift in older transmission levels, since nothing is perfect!) we would have reduced mortality and morbidity substantially.
Note also that after younger groups peaked, their cases among much older individuals have also declined, and do not appear self-sustaining. 6/8
In any location that will have an immunity-controlled epidemic, that epidemic will be be driven and ultimately controlled by high-contact low-risk groups.
Betting against the benefits of age-targeting is a bet that you will not have a large epidemic. 7/8
A few places have made this bet and won.
Many more have made this bet and lost.
And now we're going all in on the same bet, hoping we've suddenly been dealt a completely different hand. 8/8
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