Thread by @MarkBoslough

Here's today's "worst-week" graph showing each state's highest 7-day per capita increase in confirmed case count since Memorial Day, color coded by the policy that led to that growth rate (one month prior to the end of the highest growth week).

Since yesterday, red-state West Virginia has leapfrogged blue-state Washington because it had a higher rate for the 7-day period ending today than Washington had during its worst week. WV moved to the right & WA was displaced to the left, continuing the self-sorting process.

Likewise, red Montana leapt over blue Massachusetts, Maryland, and New Mexico. Yesterday I listed 11 states (all red) that have experienced their worst 7-day growth the last week. Today there are 12, with the addition of Utah.

This shows current status of each state, colored by policy that existed one month ago today. It's misleading bc the 3 best states (VT, ME, and NH) got their growth rate down to low level before they adopted the less restrictive red policy that colors their respective bars.

VT, ME, & NH were able to successfully re-open *because* of the blue restrictions. Likewise, TN is colored blue but had reached a very high infection level during the time it had a red policy. It has recovered some since it turned blue, but not a lot.

Here's a kind of hybrid graph. It shows the current rates but with a scheme that is colored according to the policy that got each state to its historic worst level since the post-Memorial-Day surge.

The only colors that change are the best three states (VT, ME, and NH) which stayed low enough to turn red because of their strict blue policy, and TN, which adopted a blue policy after peaking out at a high level because of a lax red policy.

Needless to say North Dakota is rapidly turning into the next COVID-19 disaster area, probably boosted by the Sturgis superspreader event combined with bad policy & unhealthy behavior including lack of social distancing & poor mask hygiene.