Thread by @b_fung

Seeing lots of tweets that simply assume if Trump blesses the Oracle-ByteDance deal in the next couple days, the skies clear and the TikTok ban magically goes away. It may not be that easy.

First, as I wrote here, the timing is real tight on the US side (it was when this piece first published and is increasingly so).

cnn.com/2020/09/14/tec…

Second, any deal must still be approved by the Chinese government, so that’s an additional layer of complexity.

Third, the precise mechanism by which they might claw back the app store restrictions under these tight time constraints isn’t obvious.

The restrictions taking effect on Sunday had to be noticed in advance (hence today’s announcement), and still must be published in the Federal Register.

Is there enough time for that same process to play out reversing the restrictions if they reach a deal in the next 1-2 days?

I asked Christian Davis, a CFIUS expert at Akin Gump. He told me it’s not clear what mechanism could work. Maybe Trump could issue a new EO overturning the Aug. 6 EO, he said.

But the more likely scenario, Davis said, is that the app store restrictions still go into effect and the parties continue to negotiate into next week.

“It’s not good for TikTok, certainly, but it’s a relatively mild restriction given it already has so many users,” he said.

Remember, ByteDance and Oracle have until Nov. 12 to finalize a deal. That’s potentially weeks that TikTok could be under Commerce restrictions in the US while the companies talk to the US government.