On @BBCr4today, Neil Ferguson contradicts Dido Harding suggestion that Sage modelling failed to predict the back-to-school demand surge.
"I should say Sage was never responsible for predicting demand for testing...The *test and trace system* has tended to plan for demand."
Ferguson did say that Sage did not anticipate the surge in testing demand - but that its job is to predict likely *infection levels*, not testing demand.
And adds that 97% of children have tested negative.
Here's what Harding told MPs on Thurs: “I don’t think anybody was expecting to see the really sizeable increase in demand that we’ve seen over the course of the last few weeks. In none of the modelling was that expected...We built our capacity plans based on Sage modelling.”
So it sounds like Test and Trace had responsibility for estimating demand for tests and failed to work out that many parents would ask for tests if a child had minor illness.
But had anyone at T&T even asked the demand Q? Maybe Harding will write to @GregClarkMP's Sci/Tech Cttee?
Harding was right that Sage modelling didn't anticipate the demand surge.
But it sounds like Sage was modelling for virus levels, not test demand levels.
And Sage *had* warned testing had to be ready to cope with school reopening. The detail of *how ready* cd be in its minutes.
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.