Thread by @Redistrict

Another (brief) thread: at the rate 2020 is going, here's how the rest of the year is probably going to play out...

1. Trump nominates a conservative woman to SCOTUS before the election and McConnell holds a vote at some point before December, w/ Pence breaking a 50-50 tie to confirm.

2. Biden comfortably wins the popular vote by 4-5 million, holds all 20 Clinton states and flips #NE02, Michigan, and Arizona (where Kelly beats McSally). But Trump narrowly carries Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Texas and Georgia.

The race hinges on Pennsylvania.

3. PA's count takes weeks, and ultimately Trump is certified the winner by 20,000 votes out of ~7 million.

But about 40,000 PA mail ballots are voided b/c VBM-inexperienced voters forgot to enclose them in an inner "secrecy envelope."

80% of these were intended for Biden.

4. The day before RBG died back in September, the PA Supreme Court clearly ruled that these "naked ballots" could not be counted, even though most of them were counted in the June primary.

Furious Dems file a challenge that winds up at SCOTUS in mid-December. By a 5-4 margin...

[the end]

And no, I do not derive any pleasure whatsoever from laying out this (~1% chance of happening?) worst-case scenario for the country's ability to get past this year.

A major news anchor DMed to ask: "Are these actual predictions or joke predictions?"

The answer: neither.

The point is, the odds of a major post-election legitimacy crisis are probably not far off from the odds a year ago of a global pandemic striking in 2020.