Lockdowns work.
Nearly all studies suggest that is the case:
1-nature.com/articles/s4158…
2-nature.com/articles/s4158…
3-science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
4-thelancet.com/journals/lance…
5-medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
6-arxiv.org/abs/2004.06098
7-nber.org/papers/w27091
8-nber.org/papers/w26906
1/n
9-ftp.iza.org/dp13262.pdf
10-medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
And my own analyses:
11-
12-
13-
2/n
Some studies are inconclusive:
Eg. people often incorrectly quote the abstract of thelancet.com/journals/eclin… but the authors write the results are in fact inconclusive. See my comment at
3/n
Some studies are flawed:
Eg. the single-author non-peer-reviewed preprint arxiv.org/pdf/2005.02090… uses the wrong mean infection-to-death time. Correcting for this error reveals that infections peaked in the UK exactly on lockdown day:
4/n
By far the biggest testament of the success of lockdowns and other NPIs is that they incidentally managed to keep flu activity at record low this season, in both the southern and northern hemisphere:
5/n
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