Sir Patrick Vallance says there is a “simple message from this slide” showing what’s happening in Spain and France.
“As the disease spreads, we expect to see increase in hospitalisations and unfortunately an increase in deaths.”
Next slide shows an increase in cases among all age groups.
“Could that increase be due to an increase in testing? The answer is no”, says Vallance. Positive cases are also rising as a proportion of all tests.
Around 6,000 people a day are becoming infected.
“I’d like to remind you how quickly this can move”, says Vallance.
This slide shows that if the virus continues to double every seven days then by 13th October there would be 49,000 new cases per day. Which would lead to 200+ deaths per day by November.
As for immunity, Vallance says fewer than 8% of people have developed antibodies to the virus. And that immunity will decrease over time.
“The vast majority of the population remains susceptible and therefore you’d expect large spread of the virus”.
Now Prof Chris Whitty is talking about geographical spread of the virus.
This slide shows “a rate of increase across the great majority of England. Anywhere which was falling is now beginning to rise. This is all of our problem”.
CMO says this slide shows a “A steady, sustained rise” in hospitalisations.
If this continues then deaths will continue to rise “potentially on an exponential curve”.
“We have in a bad sense, literally turned a corner. And the seasons are against us”.
CMO says we should expect this to last another six months - there is no evidence that this is a milder virus than the one we saw in April.
He warns that infection is not just remaining among the young but “moving up the age bands”.
Though good news is treatments are better.
CMO warns one of his big worries is that the NHS will be so busy treating Covid it’ll create an “indirect effect” and increase deaths from other illnesses.
He also acknowledges impact on economy and mental health.
“We need always to keep these two sides in mind”.
Vallance says it’s “possible that some vaccine may be available before the end of the year”.
But mass vaccine more likely next year.
“There is good progress that has been made...several vaccines are in very late stage clinical testing” says Vallance.
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