Thread by @mattuthompson

So, are we all hugely overreacting? Some thoughts after chats with epidemiologists and statisticians this morning.

I can perhaps best sum it up in the words of one SAGE member who told me: "It's not that we're panicking now. It's that last time we didn't panic enough"

THREAD

Yes, deaths and hospitalisations are low. But there are signs that they are rising.

And the key thing to remember is that there is a delay. There are roughly 21 days between infection and death.

So if you're seeing a large increase in deaths, then you're already too late.

Looking at the number of deaths relative to cases is also a misleading game, because we are now testing so much more, and catching so many more cases.

So it is not correct to say "look how much lower deaths are relative to cases than back in March"

You cannot compare the two.

And this is where comparisons with Spain and France can be useful. They are further along the second wave than us, so it's effectively like looking forward in time.

And the data there shows that the death rates are increasing.

They aren't increasing as quickly, that much is true.

We've got better treatments, we understand the virus better, so that will affect the numbers of deaths.

But they are increasing.

And yes, overall numbers are low now. In Spain there are 2.3 deaths per 100,000 people.

Compare that to 24 deaths per 100,000 people back in April.

But Spain had the same number of deaths as it does now in late March.

Just 3 weeks later, it had hit its peak.

Exponential growth is fast. And it's better to get on top of it sooner rather than later.

The bigger the outbreak gets, the faster it spreads.

So delaying to see whether stricter measures are needed is self-defeating.

And also, as one epidemiologist points out, if the virus is spreading amongst young people now, the death rate will not be rising at the same speed as the infection rate.

As it spreads into older populations, which is likely, that death rate will rise a lot faster.

Now, having said all that, there is a case for optimism. One Oxford statistician said there is no reason to assume that exponential growth will happen.

The context is radically different. Back in early March Boris Johnson was still wandering the country shaking people's hands.

We are now as a society taking mitigating measures that we weren't before. But we can't be sure.

And the Government was badly burned by not doing enough, soon enough, the first time. It is understandable they would want to avoid making that fatal mistake again.

(Ends)