How many deaths could have been avoided if the downward slope of daily Covid19 deaths in Sweden had been steeper?
We often hear Sweden was helpless in the beginning as the virus took off exponentially. So let’s forget about that and look only at what happened after the peak.
In a previous analysis we counted how many days it took different European countries to go from peak to 40%, 30%, 20% and 10% of peak value.
Building on that analysis we can get an approximate idea of the impact that those differences in delays had on the total death toll, see below different scenarios
Obviously this is a very simplistic approach to make the calculation and it could be improved by increasing the granularity of steps or using other types of progression between steps, but it gives us a ballpark estimate on what impact the differences in bending the curve had.
Finally, as mentioned earlier, this analysis focuses on the post-peak situation only. Variations in the pre-peak situation have obviously much larger impact on the total death toll.
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