Thread by @Kaalateetham

What is happening regarding Covid?

Well it is mostly good news. Slowly understanding is dawning on many issues hitherto not understood.

Fear of Covid is gone. Currently case fatality rate of less than 1.6 ; however in my understanding it should be much less

Why?
Read on

Early on contact tracing was inefficient & ineffective due to various factors biggest contribution was from sloppy work of authorities. This allowed Covid to spread horizontally across communities across cities across states.

Thankfully many in public did not manifest symptoms

Here in lies the fallacy of CFR, it estimates fatalities based on patients who were diagnosed positive while many primary & secondary contacts did not show symptoms, did not get checked & were not included in CFR

According to few this could be additional 100-150% of +ve cases

So in CFR; if all infected were included & calculated it would probably be in the region of 0.7 to 0.9 in India & less than 1.5 globally.

Is it a pandemic? Yes
Does virus transmit fast? Yes

However, it is not scary anymore due to various reasons. Initial ignorance & fear gone!

2nd point

The number of positive cases has shown de-growth for the first time in India since the pandemic started. It shows either we hit a plateau state or in down hill state.

The recovery rate is growing steadily, active cases not piling like before

This is really good news.

Few weeks ago in a #bbcradio interview i had expressed my concern that India might become biggest contributor to global deaths but now I am confident we will not. Deaths per day are stabilizing & not increasing anymore.

All hotspots are slowly turning warm to cold.

Good news

The only worry for me has been Namma Bengaluru, which continues to remain a hotspot. Hopefully the IAS officers who have been given "Jahagir" of our city, will burn more night oil & come up with better solutions for Namma ooru.

We definitely want to see a rapid decline soon.