A few thoughts on @Tesla's #BatteryDay...
1) Just like Autonomy Day, Battery Day was a miss from a share-price or wall-street perspective, BUT that's never the point. It's common for stock price to go down on actual release of a big anticipated announcement.
2) ...
2) @elonmusk and @Tesla are working on execution of 10 or 20-year plans. Like Autonomy Day, Today's battery announcement has 0 immediate impact on products, pricing, sales, etc. However, long-term (3+ years), today's announcements were huge!
3) But...
3) I would argue events like Autonomy Day and #BatteryDay actually hurt @elonmusk and @Tesla's reputation because it invites massive (and partly valid) criticism regarding missed targets. There's still no FSD despite promise of it in 2017, then 2018, then 2019's Autonomy Day.
4) RoboTaxis, which were promised at AutonomyDay as a "guarantee by end of 2020" are nowhere in sight.
5) Don't get me wrong, what @elonmusk is doing is mind-blowingly impressive, but pre-announcing tech with ridiculous timelines (that nobody expects) only boldens the nay-sayers
6) Similarly, there's little value to announce "3 years from now, our batteries will cost us 1/2 as much and we'll be able to make 10x as many in same size factory" (which is the summary of the #BatteryDay announcements today. And what happens if it takes 4 or 5 years?
7) The reality is that the accomplishments of @elonmusk and his companies are insane! Nobody else comes even close, but Autonomy Day should have been the day FSD is ready for beta release. Battery Day should be the day he can say "starting today the new cells are in the cars!"
8) Today's announcements only hurts @Tesla because the event fell short of *everyone's* expectations regardless of how big of a fan they are and regardless of how big of a deal these strategies are in 10-year and 20-year timeframes.
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