Thread by @shaunjlawson

There are now just 40 days until not just the most important election of anyone's lifetime - but in my view, the most important political moment the entire Western world has faced since the war. And the reason for that is because of what's going to follow.

Winter is coming.

Ahead of any US presidential election, I'd normally be looking at the polls, the forecasts. Who's up, who's down? I'm not doing that this year - because I think it's going to be irrelevant.

I think Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death was, very likely, the moment American democracy died.

The Republicans' disgusting hypocrisy in immediately demanding her seat is filled isn't just to turn the conservative majority from 5-4 to 6-3. It's entirely so they can fix the election. That is the plan; that is what they're going to do.

Whose supporters are, because they're more responsible, more aware, much more likely to use mail-in ballots during a global pandemic? Biden's.

Whose supporters are much more likely to vote on the day - and intimidate any Democrats doing the same thing? Trump's.

Trump's plan is based around the following. It's not about who wins the electoral college based on the total votes. It's about if there's a difference between the mail-in results, and the on the day results. Which there inevitably will be.

And if (when) there is, the response will be: "See? The difference means this was rigged! These results are a fraud! I'm going to the Supreme Court!"

Which, with its huge conservative majority, will simply do whatever he wants. That's what happens in autocracies.

The reason RBG's death was so pivotal is: I don't think Chief Justice Roberts - who does respect the constitution - will play ball. But the other five (including whoever the new justice is) will. They're beholden to Trump, who is like a mafia boss.

Then think of what the fall-out will involve. There are already protests sweeping the US because of police brutality, racism and total unaccountability: confirmed yet again by the horrific failure to prosecute anyone for Breonna Taylor's murder.

Well - Trump fixing the election would turn what's currently a frozen civil war into something rather hotter. And as law and order collapses, in will go the military alongside the police. Much death and violence will be the result, as the world looks on in horror.

It is - and has always been - absolute cloud cuckoo land to imagine that a criminal gangster and his criminal family will just walk away from office if they lose an election. The stakes are far too high for them to do so. If they walk away, they'll go to jail.

Authoritarians do not respect democracy - and the courts do their bidding. That's always been the case; there's nothing new in that. What's new in this case is that the United States is about to have its democracy forcibly removed.

And if that happens, then think of what it'll mean for the world. The US is, by a million miles, the world's strongest military power. So its traditional allies will, at least to some extent, also have to play ball... or else.

The US won't wake up to 2021... but to 1933.

Because when you remove democracy and accountability, you can do entirely what you want, to whoever you want.

- To journalists
- To political opponents
- To activists
- To anyone non-white

And fascism descends, with much blood, as the conversion to dictatorship accelerates.

Last week, something extraordinary happened in Britain. Ahead of a democratic election in a much more powerful allied nation, it is borderline unheard of for a governing party to openly side with its government - because you have to work with whoever wins that election.

"What are the Tories doing?", we wondered. "How can they afford to alienate the Democrats at a time like this when they desperately need a trade deal?"

Well - maybe the Tories already know what's going to go down. Maybe they already know that Trump will stay, no matter what.