Thread by @plaforscience

We've relayed on deaths for analysis, as other parameters were, specially cases, too sensitive to human manipulation.

Now, with the eye fixed in Spain, we think a clear statement must be done:

Death data has become as sensitive to political decision as any other series.

We've being analysing the situation in Spain thru all parameters, and we've concluded even death data is now sensitive to manipulating thru TESTS done. Yes, thru test done.

The mechanism works by getting lots PCR+ thru high Ct testing in a previously virus widespread pop.

...

Then, some of those mainly asymptomatics (old infections) PCR+ old people will eventually die.

Their deaths occur OUT of covid radar. Imagine not a pneumonia patient, with respiratory distress, but a heart attack, sepsis, cancer multiorganic failure, pure consumption death.

Now the PCR+ comes in play. The presence in the file is enough to go into covid toll.
We've regional confirm for 60 days old PCR use as covid death validation.

That's why EVERYDAY death data is extremely low, and few days later it grows 7~10x

Those noted daily are probably the REAL current toll in Spain WITH covid. People in the radar thru death process: respiratory problems, vascular related problems, pneumonia...

Easy to note them correctly and immediately when they finally pass away.

There's no rational for such a lag in 90% of deaths, but file search.

During epidemic period with more than 10x the number of deaths, there was mistake and lag in ~10% of deaths.
Now it's a 1.000% mistake!!

It makes no sense both that in a couple of days deaths are corrected for same day 5x factor, & that corrections of significative numbers still being done WEEKS later

With <2 daily deaths for province (~1M average) there's no possible saturation in notifying

CONSECUTIVE reports:

All causes excess death stills in the top confidence margin, and grew there BEFORE the covid supposed increase, which, being strongly out of expected cycle, must show from the low linear base without respiratory epidemic.

Those deaths are also absolutely out of ICU trends.
We have good references of proportion ICU/deaths from spring outbreak. Now it's LOTS, some 20x different relation than Epidemic standard, of deaths/ICU.

Unrelated also with strong upward trend in cases, but full up&downs.

This are the main reason we consider death data from Spain has become STRONGLY unreliable in the so called second wave, and we recommend anyone doing analysis to account on it all.

Here the team have coined the Ministry of Truth covid phase.

Finally, as noted previously, if I had to make a guess on the deaths matching the criteria of the rest of Spanish death series, I will look at the daily notified cases IN THE DAY THEY'RE PUBLISHED, ignoring later corrections.

It is currently a 10~20 plateau.