Thread by @_stah

The SCHOOL EFFECT: first pass. First, I tried to bait @tjmule into doing this, but he would not bite. So you are stuck with me. How does having school impact transmission - a first pass. 1/

School systems are a lot of contacts. In my county, the school system enrolls one of each six people (not counting staff). That's a lot of people moving around, and in infectious disease, that really matters. I found an older list of counties with, and without k-12 schools. 2/

Here is the list I used. If someone has a better list, please point me to it!!!! It also matters. I only used counties, because the state indexes cases by counties. I omitted counties where I know there are large college breakouts (Clarke, Lumpkin and a few others). 3/

Here is the epidemic curves of those counties on the list that have school in person compared to those with only a virtual option. Read the y axis to see which is which. 4/

You can read Rt off those plots - in school was 0.93 over the last 60 days, no school was 0.87. 5/

The fraction in each age group..... 6/

Please note I used 60 days to calculate Rt. Schools have only been in session for about half of that, so effects may be as much as twice as high! 7/7

Forgot my source list!!!! wsbtv.com/news/local/cou…