Here's a few reasons why I think @elonmusk is sandbagging the timeline for Battery Day improvements.
1. Elon is keenly aware Battery Day must not affect Model 3/Y sales negatively AT ALL. If he mentioned pending price or range improvements for 3/Y, it could halt sales.
2. It's obvious that Tesla is well underway in their aggressive battery developments. This didn't start just several months ago.
3. New 4680 cells are likely going to first production of Semi (initially for Tesla internal use). Roadrunner line seems active already, so I wouldn't be surprised if Semis are already being built right now with the new cells, albeit in limited quantities.
4. The second product with 4680 cells will be Tesla's Model S Plaid, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was released mid-2021 sometime. Elon has all the reason to sandbag timeline somewhat to late-2021 since it reinforces public perception of limited 4680 production.
5. The third product with 4680 cells will be Cybertruck which is scheduled for production in late 2021. This means, new 4680 need to be ramped in sufficient quantity to support Cybertrucks coming off line in August in late 2021.
6. It appears Tesla is making plans for a battery factory near Berlin, and that's likely to be with their new cells. But Berlin Giga is for 3/Y mainly, so it's likely Tesla's new cells go into Model 3/Y vehicles out of Giga Berlin. But initially maybe cells imported from US?
But it doesn't make sense to send cells from U.S. or even Asia to Berlin Giga for vehicles, due to shipping costs. So, I'd think Tesla wants to make their own cells in Berlin asap to provide cells for 3/Y made in Berlin. But unclear if Tesla can do this in time.
7. I also think it makes sense for Model Y out of Austin to have new Tesla cells but Tesla might not have enough of their own cells by end of 2021, so they might need to continue with Pansonic's 2170s initially. But I'd imagine Tesla is determined to ramp 4680s quickly.
TLDR; Tesla is likely make 4680s cells RIGHT NOW for Tesla Semi, and Tesla is very motivated to push timeline as fast as possible to get new cell lines ready for Berlin & Austin factories which are progressing fast.
But Elon couldn't share all this, lest people stop buying cars.
August = Austin
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.