Thread by @speechboy71

So this is not really a critique of @bartongellman's piece but an observation on mail-in balloting. THREAD

There's a general assumption that Democrats will overwhelmingly vote by mail and Republicans will vote in person. Recent polling by Change Research confirms that view "

"Democrats are more likely to vote by mail (44% nationally, 54% in the battleground), compared to Republicans (8% nationally, 10% in the battleground)."

However, the numbers are shrinking: 28% say they will vote by mail. That's down from 33% in the summer.

And strong majorities of voters in battleground states intend to vote early or in person, so it's far from clear that Trump will by leading in vote counts in these states on Election Night.

But there's something very interesting:

"Majorities in every state except for NC and AZ say that they will return their ballot at a drop-box or at the election office instead of through the USPS." The number who intend to drop off their ballots in MI Is 83%.

What that tells me is that voters are playing close attention to election security issues; are aware of the slowdown in mail delivery; and are changing their behavior as a result.

That suggests to me that you could see the numbers on mail in voting further decline and more voters may choose to vote in person or vote early.